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Who Will Win? St. Mary’s College of Maryland Experts Weigh In on 2012 Elections


November 1, 2012
Press Release #12-136

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The 2012 elections will be tight according to faculty of the political science department at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, who are issuing their predictions for Nov. 6.

Regardless of whom they predict to win the presidency, faculty members project a narrower margin of victory for the winner than in the 2008 election. The House of Representatives will remain in Republican hands and the Senate will remain in Democratic hands, but narrowly, they predict. One faculty member foresees a 50-50 split in the Senate, in which case the vice president would deliver the tie-breaking vote.

See individual predictions and comments from faculty below. If you would like to get further comments from the political science department faculty before or after the elections, please contact Sahar Shafqat (c-301-655-0245) or Arminta Stanfield at 240-895-3073.

Diana Boros, assistant professor

President:  Obama 288, Romney 250 (electoral votes)

Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48

House: Republican majority

 

Michael Cain, professor

President: Obama 277, Romney 261

Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 47

House: Republicans 238, Democrats 197

 

Todd Eberly, assistant professor: “Prepare to relive Florida 2000, just not in Florida.” (Eberly provides further insight into his predictions on his blog, “The Free Stater.”)

President: Romney 279, Obama 259

Senate: Republicans 50, Democrats 50

House: Republicans 234, Democrats 201

 

Matt Fehrs, assistant professor

President: Obama 281, Romney 257

Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48

House: Republican majority

 

Susan Grogan, professor

President: Obama 323, Romney 215

Senate: Democrats 52, Republican 48

House: Republican majority

 

Walter Hill, professor: “I would not be surprised if Romney wins the popular vote and loses the Electoral College, but given the performance in the third debate, I now put Obama at 50.5% of the two party vote.” 

President: Obama 303, Romney 235

Senate: Democratic majority

House: Republicans 230, Democrats 205

 

Kate Martin, visiting assistant professor

President: Obama 290, Romney 248

Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48

House: Republican majority

 

Shan Sappleton, visiting assistant professor

President: Obama 290, Romney 248

Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 47

House: Republican majority

 

Sahar Shafqat, associate professor and chair: “This election will come down to Ohio, much as the 2004 election did.”

President: Romney 270, Barack Obama 268

Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48

House: Republican majority

Category: Faculty and Staff, Other